For all a draw at Preston left Leeds fans asking themselves whether their glass is half full or half empty, United remain in the huge grey area in between. It might not feel like it, but the 2024/25 campaign is going almost exactly as the club planned: two points per game, baby!

Last season, Daniel Farke dug out his copy of ‘The Champo For Dummies’ and outlined his blueprint for finishing in the division’s top two. “If you want to be there with direct promotion,” he said last November, “you need 26 wins and several draws.” Right now, Leeds are on course for — you guessed it! — 26 wins. It’s in keeping with Farke’s reputation, then, that the difference in securing promotion might not be winning more games, but turning some of those ten defeats Leeds suffered last season (like, say, Preston away) into “several draws” in 24/25.

Even the draw with Preston followed the usual script. Leeds average 62% possession, take 16.29 shots, and concede 6.48 shots per game in this season’s Championship. At Deepdale, Leeds had 65% possession, eighteen shots on goal and five shots against. If anything, United were even more dominant than usual.

It’s part of the reason why I’m focusing on the full half of Leeds United’s glass for the time being. Beating Middlesbrough was fun and full of charm, and if I’m going to say that I’m confident Leeds will win promotion, then I should at least have some conviction in my writing. If both the results and the performances are going to plan, we’re just going to have to wait until May to find out whether it was the right plan or not. How’s about that for, erm, conviction?

For all the familiar frustration of sleeping through another first half and dropping points away from home, Leeds actually showed something we’ve doubted from this team and manager in recent weeks: an ability to turn momentum, and ultimately the result, after a troublesome start to a game. Leeds emerged after half-time and immediately began turning the screw. Joel Piroe, Ao Tanaka, Joe Rothwell, Dan James and Wilf Gnonto all had shots within three minutes of each other, before Farke turned to his bench slightly earlier than his usual seventy-minute mark. Pat Bamford should have equalised straight after coming on, but Leeds had another sub, Mateo Joseph, to eventually thank for his role in rescuing a point in stoppage time. While it went down as an own goal, Leeds have still scored more goals by substitutes than any other side in the division. For a manager so supposedly incapable of impacting games with his changes, Farke does have a decent knack for it.

Why Leeds can’t shake their sleepy starts in away games remains a mystery. Farke recently spoke about his team not having any excuses for their away form, and he’s right — the shape and flow of Leeds games are largely the same whether they’re played at Elland Road or elsewhere. But the vibes are all wrong. On Saturday, Leeds arrived late to the ground and unsurprisingly started the match looking like they were expecting it to kick off at 3pm rather than lunchtime. If Farke should be criticised for anything, I’m not sure his tactics are the right target. A fairer gripe might be that he’s failing to send his team out for away games with a rocket up their arse, knowing the opposition are going to get one from their home support — not to mention the benefit of the doubt from the referee. Farke acknowledged this problem himself afterwards, although Ethan Ampadu’s return might help solve it.

Preston were the same dogs as last season, taking their time at a throw-in within the first minute and leaving striker Milutin Osmajic to kick lumps out of Joe Rodon, having only recently returned from an eight-match ban for biting. Naturally, Osmajic was integral to Preston taking the lead, bullying Pascal Struijk out of the way before crossing for Brad Potts to score a goal that none of Leeds’ back five will want to watch back, least of all Illan Meslier, who was once again left to rue his biscuit wrists. Rothwell had lost the ball at the edge of Preston’s box and Jayden Bogle had been too slow in tracking back, but if promotion is to be decided by fine margins, then soz, Illan, but we could really do with you stopping some of these.

It’s never a good sign when Piroe starts dropping deep to scuff pot shots from thirty yards, and with Aaronson wasting what would have been a brilliantly subtle Sam Byram assist with a finish that would have made Billy Paynter wince, I was partly relieved that referee John Busby created a controversy to distract from Leeds’ shortcomings by bottling out of giving Ben Whiteman an obvious second yellow. United were playing away day bingo, and a shit ref nearly completed a full house.

But that’s why I’m taking encouragement from the second half. Meslier has failed to inspire confidence for a long time; Bogle is getting dangerously close to becoming the Brenden Aaronson of full-backs — full of running, but rarely where you want him to be; and Brenden Aaronson is the actual Brenden Aaronson, yet Leeds still dug themselves out of a hole and more than deserved the point. Had James’ shot been a few inches lower rather than against the crossbar, we’d have been worth a couple more.

The equaliser may have been fortuitous, but you make your own luck. Where Bamford was claiming a stoppage-time OG away at Luton in the last promotion season, see Joseph running off celebrating at Deepdale after his backheel deflected in off Jack Whatmough. Bamford defying Expected Goals and conspiring to miss almost the exact same chance may prove his passing of the baton to Joseph.

At times this season Farke had sounded desperate to start Bamford, hoping he can jumpstart Leeds’ attack as he did twelve months ago. But with form and fitness once again eluding Bamford towards the end of last season, this time around Farke would be better off turning to the younger, hungrier version in Joseph and backing him with a run of games like he did at the start of the campaign. Even if Joseph’s own form is as patchy as you’d expect from a 21-year-old who’d never started a league game before this season, the last two games have shown that Leeds benefit from having a focal point in attack, and Piroe benefits from having the first hour on the bench to clear his head and overcome the munchies.

There is a debate whether Leeds would be better off targeting a striker or a number 10 ahead of the January transfer window. There is an argument for both, which is why I’d happily take either. Perhaps Aaronson and Joseph can scrap it out until the New Year to decide who doesn’t get replaced. Leeds might be on course for two points per game, 26 wins, and fewer defeats than last season, but 26 wins weren’t enough last season — Leeds reached that mark with six games remaining, won one more, and finished third. Expecting the same thing again to produce a different result is a big risk.

The 49ers should have learned that targeting just enough can leave you with too little. If they’re serious about getting the job done and moving onto grander ambitions, then I’ll let them take their pick. A striker or a number 10, you choose. Either could help Leeds turn more defeats into draws, and more draws into wins, and more wins into a hell of a lot of goodwill. ⬢

(Photograph by Gary Oakley, via Alamy)